S Web's Week 4 NFL Picks

I'll admit it, I've used a sports tout. You know, the guy on the radio offering his Sunday Night 5 Star can't miss, guaranteed, super-duper lock, if you'll only call 1-866. . . I've had someone give me the picks from a service that they use, and I've bought picks. . .I've won...and I've lost...but mostly lost.

But you know I've decided, you don't need those guys, especially if you are a fantasy football nut like myself. In my fantasy league we use individual defensive players (IDP's) so we all get to know defensive positions as well as offensive positions pretty closely. I'd wager being active in a couple fantasy football, or baseball if that's your ken, can serve you pretty well.

We expect these guys to have some type of magical insight into the NFL game. . .after as much as I've paid and lost, I don't believe it. So here's what I did. I started clicking around to see what these guys actual winning percentages were ATS and SU (Against The Spread and Straight Up respectively). And I found that they pick around 50 - 55 percent of the games. About half the time. So just for fun, I decided to forgo the plunking down of 45 dollars for a service each week, and have a go at it myself.

So I decided just for fun, I'd make three picks each week and see how well I do. Feel free to agree or disagree...

Here are my plays:

Baltimore (3 - 110)
I likes me some D. Sure both have good defenses, but Baltimore is back to being the class of the league, and San Diego has played some soft competition terrorizing the Oakland Raiders 27-0 and giving rolling over a terrible Tennessee Titans team 40-7.
Baltimore won a tough game on the road last week, and should boost their confidence. Plus, in my opinion Baltimore has the better QB in McNair. I'll take Baltimore and the points.

Jacksonville (-2.5 - 120)
Let's get this straight, the Texans made Washington look good and Jacksonville lost a tough one against the hated division rival Indianapolis Colts. I'm taking Jacksonville in this one and giving the points. They should be nice an pissed off after losing to the Colts.

Cincinnati (-4 -110)
Cincy, dueled well and defeated the Steelers in Pittsburgh, no easy feat. They should start clicking again with a healthy Houshmanzadeh and Johnson, and Rudi will roll in this home affair.
Carson Palmer is back and getting better each week. I'll take Cincy and give the points.

Check back to see how we stand, right now I'm perfect.